Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Oostende – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Oostende to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade Joseph Mariën, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oostende stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Oostende's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Oostende and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 8.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 7–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Oostende in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 45% versus Oostende 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 61% | Oostende 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.26 xG and Oostende 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.945 / defence 0.893 | Oostende attack 0.526 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.345. Data: 31 Union St. Gilloise games / 31 Oostende games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 30% | Oostende 19%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Oostende 5.26. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Oostende's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Oostende 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 30% | Oostende 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.26 / Oostende 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.945 / def 0.893 | Oostende attack 0.526 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Oostende xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 1 Oostende.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 52% chance of winning, Oostende a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Oostende will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Oostende?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 1W | Draws 0 | Oostende 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Oostende in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Oostende (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (0.94) and Oostende's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oostende's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
52%
1.94
30%
3.37
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
1.89
0.63
Oostende xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Oostende expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.63 for Oostende, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 31 games, going 22W 4D 5L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Oostende sit at 1.03 PPG from 31 outings (9W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Oostende — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 9W 2D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Oostende have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Oostende are on 0.94 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Oostende
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Oostende in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 22W 4D 5L in their last 31 games (2.26 PPG), while Oostende have gone 9W 5D 17L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Oostende away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.93 PPG; Oostende away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Oostende been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Oostende in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Oostende specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Oostende
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Oostende?
From 4 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Oostende have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Oostende last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2022, when Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Oostende.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Oostende?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Oostende see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Union St. Gilloise 40% BTTS, Oostende 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union St. Gilloise) and 40% (Oostende).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 27% of games; Oostende in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Oostende away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Oostende?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 27% of Oostende's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Oostende usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 40% of Oostende's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Oostende tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Oostende in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise and Oostende share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise and Oostende finished level at 1-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.26 xG and Oostende 0.63 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Oostende attack 0.53 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 52% | Draw 30% | Oostende 19%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 61%, Oostende 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Oostende's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.