Union St. Gilloise 1-1 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KVC Westerlo make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KVC Westerlo (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KVC Westerlo's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of KVC Westerlo's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, KVC Westerlo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
KVC Westerlo half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 49% versus KVC Westerlo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 58% | KVC Westerlo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.30 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.096 / defence 0.818 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.066 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.437. KVC Westerlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Union St. Gilloise games / 15 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 19% | KVC Westerlo 20%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | KVC Westerlo 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 60% | KVC Westerlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 19% | KVC Westerlo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.30 / KVC Westerlo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.096 / def 0.818 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.066 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.25
KVC Westerlo xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 1 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 61% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against KVC Westerlo's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — KVC Westerlo's attack (1.07x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
61%
1.64
19%
5.17
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.55
1.25
KVC Westerlo xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
2%
50.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.25 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 28W 7D 8L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KVC Westerlo's form line: 24W 6D 13L from 43 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.12 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.81 for KVC Westerlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 1.90 PPG from 21 outings (12W 4D 5L).
On the road, KVC Westerlo have gone 11W 0D 10L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.84 scored and 1.35 conceded. KVC Westerlo's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 7D 8L in their last 43 games (2.12 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 24W 6D 13L in their last 43 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or KVC Westerlo away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.90 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or KVC Westerlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, KVC Westerlo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 1-5 on 8 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against KVC Westerlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
2
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo?
From 9 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, KVC Westerlo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when KVC Westerlo 1-5 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 48%, KVC Westerlo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union St. Gilloise) and 62% (KVC Westerlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play KVC Westerlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 57% of KVC Westerlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 62% of KVC Westerlo's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 16, as Union St. Gilloise and KVC Westerlo drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.30 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.25 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.07 / defence 1.28, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 19% | KVC Westerlo 20%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, KVC Westerlo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.12 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.