Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host Kortrijk at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 2.00 PPG, Kortrijk 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Union St. Gilloise 33% | Kortrijk 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Kortrijk 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 0.71 xG and Kortrijk 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.818 / defence 1.086 | Kortrijk attack 0.786 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 0.850 / away 1.600. Data: 3 Union St. Gilloise games / 3 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 16% | Draw 35% | Kortrijk 49%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 6.25 | Draw 2.86 | Kortrijk 2.04. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 33% | Kortrijk 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 16% | Draw 35% | Kortrijk 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Union St. Gilloise 0.71 / Kortrijk 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.818 / def 1.086 | Kortrijk attack 0.786 / def 1.025 | league avg home 0.850 / away 1.600 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Kortrijk xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 16% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 49% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 0.82x the league average against Kortrijk's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
16%
6.31
35%
2.83
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.08
1.36
Kortrijk xG
6.31
16%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
4%
24.69
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.36 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.00 PPG, Kortrijk on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's scoring rate against Kortrijk's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Kortrijk in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Union St. Gilloise or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, Kortrijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Union St. Gilloise 33% BTTS, Kortrijk 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Union St. Gilloise) and 33% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kortrijk in 67%; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 33% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 33% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 2-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 0.71 xG and Kortrijk 1.36 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kortrijk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Kortrijk attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 16% | Draw 35% | Kortrijk 49%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Union St. Gilloise win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Kortrijk 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kortrijk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.00 PPG, Kortrijk 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.