Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Genk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Genk in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 50% versus Genk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 68% | Genk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.68 xG and Genk 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.154 / defence 0.978 | Genk attack 0.941 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.525. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Union St. Gilloise games / 22 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 44% | Draw 24% | Genk 32%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Genk 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 44% | Draw 24% | Genk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.68 / Genk 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.154 / def 0.978 | Genk attack 0.941 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Genk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 44% chance of winning, Genk a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.22
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.08
1.40
Genk xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.40 for Genk, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 22 games, going 16W 2D 4L for 2.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Genk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 7W 1D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.55 conceded. Genk's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 64%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 16W 2D 4L in their last 22 games (2.27 PPG), while Genk have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.00 PPG; Genk away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Genk in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 46%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Union St. Gilloise) and 54% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Genk in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 64% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 54% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Genk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.68 xG and Genk 1.40 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Genk attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 44% | Draw 24% | Genk 32%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 68%, Genk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.