Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Championship Round - 10 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Mariën than their overall form suggests.
Genk — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Genk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union St. Gilloise 1.20 PPG, Genk 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union St. Gilloise, 2 for Genk and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Genk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Genk in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 70% and Genk 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.46 xG and Genk 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.103 / defence 1.004 | Genk attack 1.037 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Data: 64 Union St. Gilloise games / 64 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 26% | Genk 32%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Genk 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 80% | Genk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 26% | Genk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.46 / Genk 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.103 / def 1.004 | Genk attack 1.037 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Genk xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 Genk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 43% chance of winning, Genk a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 1W | Draws 0 | Genk 2W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.89
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.69
1.22
Genk xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.22 for Genk, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 79 games, going 49W 17D 13L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.81 PPG from 79 outings (41W 20D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.08 PPG, Genk on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 26W 6D 7L across 39 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.56 points per game from 39 outings (17W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.86 scored and 1.18 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Genk in 61%.
Last 79 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 49W 17D 13L in their last 79 games (2.08 PPG), while Genk have gone 41W 20D 18L in their last 79 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.15 PPG; Genk away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union St. Gilloise at 67%, Genk at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Union St. Gilloise and 59% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 59% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Genk in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 2-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.46 xG and Genk 1.22 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Genk attack 1.04 / defence 0.84, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 43% | Draw 26% | Genk 32%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Genk 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.08 PPG, Genk 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.