Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 7). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union St. Gilloise's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Anderlecht stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Anderlecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Anderlecht's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Union St. Gilloise's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 90% of each side's games (from Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 70% and Anderlecht 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Anderlecht 55%). Note also that Anderlecht surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Union St. Gilloise recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Anderlecht 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.110 / defence 1.006 | Anderlecht attack 1.340 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Anderlecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.340, which lifts their away xG to 1.58. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 64 games and Anderlecht's last 63.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 34% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 41%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.90 | Draw 4.14 | Anderlecht 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 90% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 34% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.43 / Anderlecht 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.110 / def 1.006 | Anderlecht attack 1.340 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Anderlecht xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 7) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 64 games and Anderlecht's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
34%
2.90
24%
4.14
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.01
1.58
Anderlecht xG
2.90
34%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.58 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 44W 14D 11L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Anderlecht's form line: 34W 17D 18L from 69 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Anderlecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.18 PPG from their last 34 home games (23W 5D 6L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 14W 10D 10L from their last 34 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.68 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 44W 14D 11L in their last 69 games (2.12 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 34W 17D 18L in their last 69 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.18 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Anderlecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 68%, Anderlecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Union St. Gilloise and 53% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 62% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 53% of Anderlecht's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 74% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 7, as Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.43 xG and Anderlecht 1.58 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Anderlecht landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Anderlecht attack 1.34 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 34% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 41%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Anderlecht 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.