Standard Liege 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liege versus St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liege's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Standard Liege at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Standard Liege are significantly better at Stade Maurice Dufrasne than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Standard Liege, 1.30 for St. Truiden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Standard Liege 1W, St. Truiden 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Standard Liege half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 51% versus St. Truiden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 49% | St. Truiden 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 2.07 xG and St. Truiden 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 1.022 / defence 0.856 | St. Truiden attack 0.855 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Standard Liege games / 64 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 65% | Draw 20% | St. Truiden 15%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | St. Truiden 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Standard Liege (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Standard Liege 20% | St. Truiden 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 6 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 65% | Draw 20% | St. Truiden 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG Standard Liege 2.07 / St. Truiden 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 1.022 / def 0.856 | St. Truiden attack 0.855 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.86
St. Truiden xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs St. Truiden kick off?
Standard Liege vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Standard Liege 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden part of?
Standard Liege vs St. Truiden is a Conference League Play-off Group - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 65% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Standard Liege and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and St. Truiden?
Record (5 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 3 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and St. Truiden in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 1.02x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.85x) against Standard Liege's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.00
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.93
0.86
St. Truiden xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
2%
54.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.86 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 22W 22D 25L from 69 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 26L across 69 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Standard Liege against 1.29 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 14W 10D 9L from 33 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 8W 10D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liege are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 22W 22D 25L in their last 69 games (1.28 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 23W 20D 26L in their last 69 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or St. Truiden away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.58 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Standard Liege 1-2 St. Truiden.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 39%, St. Truiden 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Standard Liege) and 52% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 33% of games; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 52% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Standard Liege's recent games and 52% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liege and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege and St. Truiden finished level at 1-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Conference League Play-off Group - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 2.07 xG and St. Truiden 0.86 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against St. Truiden attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 65% | Draw 20% | St. Truiden 15%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 49%, St. Truiden 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.28 PPG, St. Truiden 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.