Standard Liege 0-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gent make the trip to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to face Standard Liege in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Standard Liege have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege's home record at Stade Maurice Dufrasne: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gent (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gent's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Gent are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Standard Liege — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gent — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 59% versus Gent 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 48% | Gent 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.73 xG and Gent 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.745 / defence 1.228 | Gent attack 0.773 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.340. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Standard Liege games / 28 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 21% | Draw 30% | Gent 49%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Gent 2.04. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 60% | Gent 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 21% | Draw 30% | Gent 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Standard Liege 0.73 / Gent 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.745 / def 1.228 | Gent attack 0.773 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Gent (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gent xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Gent kick off?
Standard Liege vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Gent?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Gent.
Where is Standard Liege vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Gent part of?
Standard Liege vs Gent is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 21% chance of winning, Gent a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Standard Liege and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Gent?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and Gent in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Gent (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.74) and Gent's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gent's attack (0.77x) against Standard Liege's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
21%
4.76
30%
3.35
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.00
1.27
Gent xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.02
24%
4.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 17.2 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.27 for Gent, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 7W 8D 12L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent's form line: 13W 7D 7L from 27 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gent are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liege.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L).
On the road, Gent have gone 5W 4D 4L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liege are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.56 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Gent in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Gent in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Gent have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 0.85 PPG; Gent away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Gent in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gent have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gent won 5-0 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Standard Liege
0
Draws
9
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 1, Gent have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Standard Liege 0-4 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gent see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 62%, Gent 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Standard Liege) and 31% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 46%; Gent in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 31% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Standard Liege's recent games and 31% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Gent tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gent in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.73 xG and Gent 1.27 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Gent attack 0.77 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 21% | Draw 30% | Gent 49%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 48%, Gent 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Gent's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.