St. Truiden 1-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Genk at Stadion Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.43 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Stadion Stayen: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genk stand at 3W 2D 1L from 6 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.83 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.43 PPG versus Genk's 1.83. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Genk in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genk in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 33% versus Genk 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 33% | Genk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.10 xG and Genk 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.840 / defence 1.336 | Genk attack 0.847 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.516. Data: 7 St. Truiden games / 6 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Genk 52%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Genk 1.92. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 67% | Genk 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Genk 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 1.10 / Genk 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.840 / def 1.336 | Genk attack 0.847 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.516 • Poisson stance: Genk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Genk xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Genk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
St. Truiden 1 - 2 Genk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Genk part of?
St. Truiden vs Genk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 24% chance of winning, Genk a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Genk (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.84x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
24%
4.10
24%
4.19
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.82
1.72
Genk xG
4.10
24%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
4%
22.81
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.72 for Genk, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 67%.
Defensively: St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Genk have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have St. Truiden or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Genk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
5
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Genk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 33%, Genk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (St. Truiden) and 50% (Genk).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Genk in 33%; St. Truiden have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 67% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of St. Truiden's recent games and 50% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Genk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Genk in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out St. Truiden 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.10 xG and Genk 1.72 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Genk attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 24% | Draw 24% | Genk 52%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 33%, Genk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.