St. Truiden 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Antwerp (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as St. Truiden face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Antwerp travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antwerp are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from St. Truiden's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Antwerp have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for St. Truiden.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2024, ended St. Truiden 1–6 Antwerp — a Antwerp win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Antwerp have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 60% versus Antwerp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 48% | Antwerp 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: St. Truiden surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Antwerp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Antwerp surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while St. Truiden recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.22 xG and Antwerp 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.914 / defence 1.197 | Antwerp attack 1.078 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.117. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 52 games and Antwerp's last 52.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 40%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.42 | Draw 3.20 | Antwerp 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 70% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 29% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG St. Truiden 1.22 / Antwerp 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.914 / def 1.197 | Antwerp attack 1.078 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Antwerp xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 24 January 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 29% chance of winning, Antwerp a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 52 games and Antwerp's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.20
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.66
1.44
Antwerp xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.44 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 18W 21D 23L from 62 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 20L across 62 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.21 PPG, Antwerp on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 13W 11D 7L from their last 31 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Antwerp's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across their last 31 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.63 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 18W 21D 23L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 26W 16D 20L in their last 62 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.61 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won Antwerp 6-1 St. Truiden.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 58%, Antwerp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (St. Truiden) and 45% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 52% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of St. Truiden's recent games and 45% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 81% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and Antwerp finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.22 xG and Antwerp 1.44 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Antwerp attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 29% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 40%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 48%, Antwerp 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.21 PPG, Antwerp 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.