RWDM 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RWDM at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edmond Machtensstadion plays host to RWDM versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RWDM have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM at Edmond Machtensstadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RWDM are significantly better at Edmond Machtensstadion than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for RWDM against 0.80 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 66% and Kortrijk 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 61% | Kortrijk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.74 xG and Kortrijk 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.854 / defence 1.148 | Kortrijk attack 0.690 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.281. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing RWDM's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 RWDM games / 46 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 53% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 20%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Kortrijk 5.00. RWDM hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RWDM at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RWDM if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RWDM 60% | Kortrijk 30%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 53% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG RWDM 1.74 / Kortrijk 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.854 / def 1.148 | Kortrijk attack 0.690 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: RWDM (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Kortrijk xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Kortrijk kick off?
RWDM vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Kortrijk?
RWDM 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is RWDM vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Kortrijk part of?
RWDM vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 53% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both RWDM and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RWDM and Kortrijk in?
RWDM (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RWDM's attack rating (0.85) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.69x) against RWDM's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.68
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.75
1.01
Kortrijk xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
28.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are RWDM and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for RWDM and 1.01 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RWDM's recent record stands at 24W 10D 10L from 44 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 26L across 44 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 3W 2D 16L across 21 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RWDM are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.02 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 24W 10D 10L in their last 44 games (1.86 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 9W 9D 26L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Kortrijk away?
RWDM's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 2.10 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Kortrijk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RWDM have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
RWDM
1
Draws
4
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Kortrijk?
From 6 meetings on record, RWDM have won 1, Kortrijk have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Kortrijk 3-1 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 62%, Kortrijk 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for RWDM and 67% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of RWDM's games and 57% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of RWDM's matches and 67% of Kortrijk's.
Do RWDM and Kortrijk tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 13, as RWDM and Kortrijk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.74 xG and Kortrijk 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kortrijk attack 0.69 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 53% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 20%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 61%, Kortrijk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.