OH Leuven 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as OH Leuven face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion to face OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Genk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Genk are 0.90 PPG clear of OH Leuven in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Genk, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Genk winning.
It is worth noting that Genk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 61% and Genk 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 57% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.29 xG and Genk 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.950 / defence 0.915 | Genk attack 1.161 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.226. Data: 56 OH Leuven games / 56 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 32% | Genk 34%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Genk 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Jan 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 34% | Draw 32% | Genk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG OH Leuven 1.29 / Genk 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.950 / def 0.915 | Genk attack 1.161 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Genk xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Genk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Genk kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
OH Leuven 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is OH Leuven vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Genk part of?
OH Leuven vs Genk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 34% chance of winning, Genk a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both OH Leuven and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): OH Leuven 0W | Draws 0 | Genk 3W.
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.16x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
34%
2.95
32%
3.14
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.60
1.30
Genk xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.30 for Genk, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OH Leuven come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 15D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.86 PPG from 56 outings (29W 17D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
OH Leuven's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.68 points per game from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Genk in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Genk have gone 29W 17D 10L in their last 56 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.36 PPG; Genk away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
1
Draws
7
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Genk have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 57%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (OH Leuven) and 57% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of OH Leuven's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of OH Leuven's matches and 57% of Genk's.
Do OH Leuven and Genk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Genk in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Genk 2-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.29 xG and Genk 1.30 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Genk attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 34% | Draw 32% | Genk 34%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 57%, Genk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.