Kortrijk 1-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Kortrijk take on Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldensporenstadion plays host to Kortrijk versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 7 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 3.00 PPG across 2 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 0L. Last five: W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.50 in Kortrijk's favour (3.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.04 xG and Genk 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 1.132 / defence 0.969 | Genk attack 0.786 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 0.792 / away 1.603. Data: 2 Kortrijk games / 2 Genk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 27% | Draw 36% | Genk 36%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Genk 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 27% | Draw 36% | Genk 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Kortrijk 1.04 / Genk 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 1.132 / def 0.969 | Genk attack 0.786 / def 1.166 | league avg home 0.792 / away 1.603 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Genk xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Genk kick off?
Kortrijk vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Genk?
Kortrijk 1 - 2 Genk.
Where is Kortrijk vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Genk part of?
Kortrijk vs Genk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 27% chance of winning, Genk a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kortrijk and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kortrijk and Genk in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W. Genk (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (1.13) and Genk's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.79x) against Kortrijk's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.65
36%
2.75
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.27
1.22
Genk xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.22 for Genk, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kortrijk by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genk heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Kortrijk are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 2.50 conceded. Genk's attacking output running into Kortrijk's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kortrijk have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Genk in 100%.
Defensively: Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Genk in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Genk have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Kortrijk or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Genk in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-0 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
6
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Genk?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Genk have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Genk 3-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 100% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Kortrijk's recent games and 50% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Kortrijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Kortrijk 1-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.04 xG and Genk 1.22 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Genk attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 27% | Draw 36% | Genk 36%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 0%, Genk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Genk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.