Kortrijk 0-3 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kortrijk face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host Dender at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Kortrijk — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Kortrijk have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kortrijk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Dender have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Dender have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kortrijk at 1.00 PPG versus Dender's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Kortrijk, 1 for Dender and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Kortrijk 1–4 Dender — a Dender win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dender in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 43% versus Dender 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 55% | Dender 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.63 xG and Dender 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.866 / defence 1.061 | Dender attack 0.846 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 0.992. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 47 games and Dender's last 17.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 32% | Dender 17%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.95 | Draw 3.15 | Dender 5.89. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 50% (last 10 home games) | Dender 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 32% | Dender 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Kortrijk 1.63 / Dender 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.866 / def 1.061 | Dender attack 0.846 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.706 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Dender xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs Dender FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs Dender kick off?
Kortrijk vs Dender kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Dender?
Kortrijk 0 - 3 Dender.
Where is Kortrijk vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Dender part of?
Kortrijk vs Dender is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 51% chance of winning, Dender a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kortrijk and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kortrijk vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.87) and Dender's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 47 games and Dender's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
51%
1.95
32%
3.15
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.52
0.89
Dender xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
3%
30.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.89 for Dender, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 7D 25L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Dender's form line: 20W 15D 12L from 47 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Dender are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 2D 11L).
On the road, Dender have gone 10W 7D 6L from their last 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.60 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Dender
Blended
Kortrijk (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Kortrijk vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and Dender in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 15W 7D 25L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Dender have gone 20W 15D 12L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.39 PPG; Dender away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Dender in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 14 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kortrijk
0
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Dender?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 0, Dender have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2024: Kortrijk 0-3 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Dender 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kortrijk) and 56% (Dender). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender in 30%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and Dender matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 61% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kortrijk and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kortrijk's matches and 56% of Dender's.
Do Kortrijk and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 83% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dender run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Kortrijk 0-3 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.63 xG and Dender 0.89 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kortrijk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dender outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Dender attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 51% | Draw 32% | Dender 17%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Dender win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 55%, Dender 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dender's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.