Kortrijk 2-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Charleroi meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 1.56 PPG across 9 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk at Guldensporenstadion this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldensporenstadion.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 2L from 9 games (1.44 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.22. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.44 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.56 vs 1.44 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 44% versus Charleroi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 44% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.22 xG and Charleroi 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.926 / defence 1.054 | Charleroi attack 1.015 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.525. Data: 9 Kortrijk games / 9 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 29% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 47%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 2.13. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Charleroi 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 29% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Kortrijk 1.22 / Charleroi 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.926 / def 1.054 | Charleroi attack 1.015 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Charleroi xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 2 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 29% chance of winning, Charleroi a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kortrijk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.93x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.01x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
29%
3.49
24%
4.09
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.85
1.63
Charleroi xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.81
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.63 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 2L across 9 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Kortrijk against 1.44 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.44 PPG overall record — Charleroi travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.75 PPG; Charleroi away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Charleroi in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
3
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Charleroi have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2024, when Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Charleroi 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kortrijk and 75% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kortrijk's games and 75% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kortrijk's matches and 75% of Charleroi's.
Do Kortrijk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 10, as Kortrijk and Charleroi drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.22 xG and Charleroi 1.63 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 29% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 47%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 44%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.56 PPG, Charleroi 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.