Kortrijk 1-1 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host Cercle Brugge at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Kortrijk — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kortrijk's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Kortrijk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cercle Brugge stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cercle Brugge — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Kortrijk have won 2, Cercle Brugge 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2024, ended Kortrijk 2–1 Cercle Brugge — a Kortrijk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kortrijk in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 45% versus Cercle Brugge 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 56% | Cercle Brugge 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kortrijk surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Cercle Brugge have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.07 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.740 / defence 1.218 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.933 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.154. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cercle Brugge's projected output up. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 56 games and Cercle Brugge's last 56.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 28% | Draw 33% | Cercle Brugge 39%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 3.59 | Draw 3.05 | Cercle Brugge 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cercle Brugge at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 50% (last 10 home games) | Cercle Brugge 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 28% | Draw 33% | Cercle Brugge 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Kortrijk 1.07 / Cercle Brugge 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.740 / def 1.218 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.933 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cercle Brugge xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Kortrijk 1 - 1 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 28% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.74x the league average against Cercle Brugge's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 56 games and Cercle Brugge's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
28%
3.59
33%
3.05
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.39
1.31
Cercle Brugge xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.31 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 15W 11D 38L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 23W 18D 23L from 64 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Cercle Brugge are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 1.06 PPG from their last 32 home games (10W 4D 18L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 10W 9D 13L from their last 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.28 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Kortrijk (Home) vs Cercle Brugge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 15W 11D 38L in their last 64 games (0.88 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 23W 18D 23L in their last 64 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Cercle Brugge's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.06 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Dec 2023, when Cercle Brugge won Cercle Brugge 3-0 Kortrijk.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
3
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 3, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Cercle Brugge 0-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Cercle Brugge 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kortrijk) and 47% (Cercle Brugge).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 34% of games; Cercle Brugge in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 53% of Cercle Brugge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Kortrijk's recent games and 47% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 72% of Cercle Brugge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 27, as Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.07 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.31 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 28% | Draw 33% | Cercle Brugge 39%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, Cercle Brugge 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cercle Brugge arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.