Kortrijk 0-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antwerp make the trip to Guldensporenstadion to face Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Kortrijk (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antwerp have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antwerp are 0.60 PPG clear of Kortrijk in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kortrijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Antwerp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kortrijk lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Kortrijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 54% versus Antwerp 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 33% | Antwerp 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.79 xG and Antwerp 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.759 / defence 1.020 | Antwerp attack 0.795 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.462. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Kortrijk games / 24 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 24% | Draw 30% | Antwerp 45%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Antwerp 2.22. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: Kortrijk 60% | Antwerp 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 24% | Draw 30% | Antwerp 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Kortrijk 0.79 / Antwerp 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.759 / def 1.020 | Antwerp attack 0.795 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Antwerp xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Antwerp kick off?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Kortrijk 0 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Kortrijk vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Antwerp part of?
Kortrijk vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 24% chance of winning, Antwerp a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Kortrijk and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Record (1 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Antwerp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.80x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
24%
4.09
30%
3.31
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
1.97
1.19
Antwerp xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
7%
13.38
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 16.5 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.19 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 10D 6L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.96 PPG from 24 outings (14W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kortrijk's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 2.09 points per game from 11 outings (7W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.83 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 8W 10D 6L in their last 24 games (1.42 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 14W 5D 5L in their last 24 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.45 PPG; Antwerp away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Antwerp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Antwerp have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
6
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Antwerp have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 54%, Antwerp 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Kortrijk) and 46% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Antwerp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Kortrijk's games and 64% of Antwerp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Kortrijk's recent games and 46% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Antwerp tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Kortrijk 0-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.79 xG and Antwerp 1.19 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Antwerp attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 24% | Draw 30% | Antwerp 45%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 33%, Antwerp 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.