Gent 0-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 44%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gent vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GHELAMCO-arena plays host to Gent versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gent have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's home record at GHELAMCO-arena: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Gent are significantly better at GHELAMCO-arena than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 4W 1D 1L from 6 away outings — 2.17 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gent have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Gent goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 50% versus Union St. Gilloise 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 50% | Union St. Gilloise 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.84 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.324 / defence 0.947 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.124 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.516. Gent carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Gent games / 12 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 44% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 34%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Union St. Gilloise 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gent 67% | Union St. Gilloise 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 44% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Gent 1.84 / Union St. Gilloise 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.324 / def 0.947 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.124 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.516 • Poisson stance: Gent (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Union St. Gilloise xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Gent 0 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 44% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Gent and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in?
Gent (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gent's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.12x) against Gent's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
44%
2.30
22%
4.49
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Gent xG
Total xG
3.46
1.61
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Gent and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Gent and 1.61 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Gent have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 5W 2D 5L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 8W 1D 3L from 12 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gent.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gent have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Gent are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gent are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.25 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Gent's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.17 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Gent or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gent
6
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Gent, 67% for Union St. Gilloise — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Gent and 83% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Gent's games and 67% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Gent's matches and 83% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Gent and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gent.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Gent 0-2 at GHELAMCO-arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.84 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.61 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gent fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.32 / defence 0.95 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 44% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 34%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 50%, Union St. Gilloise 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.