Gent 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Anderlecht at Ghelamco Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 6W 2D 2L at Ghelamco Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ghelamco Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gent are significantly better at Ghelamco Arena than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 1.20 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 46% versus Anderlecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 50% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.21 xG and Anderlecht 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 0.984 / defence 0.832 | Anderlecht attack 1.062 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.269. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Gent games / 60 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 37% | Draw 31% | Anderlecht 32%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Anderlecht 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Gent 40% | Anderlecht 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ghelamco Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 37% | Draw 31% | Anderlecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Gent 1.21 / Anderlecht 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 0.984 / def 0.832 | Anderlecht attack 1.062 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Gent (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Anderlecht xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Anderlecht kick off?
Gent vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Ghelamco Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Gent 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Gent vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Ghelamco Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Anderlecht part of?
Gent vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 37% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gent and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in?
Gent (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gent's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.21
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Gent xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Anderlecht xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gent and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gent and 1.12 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Gent have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 34W 14D 18L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 30W 18D 18L from 66 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.76 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gent have posted 1.94 PPG from 32 outings (19W 5D 8L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 14W 9D 9L from 32 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gent are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.82 scored and 1.14 conceded. Anderlecht's attacking output running into Gent's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 34W 14D 18L in their last 66 games (1.76 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 30W 18D 18L in their last 66 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Anderlecht away?
Gent's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.94 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Gent or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gent
2
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 2, Anderlecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gent 1-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 50%, Anderlecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gent) and 53% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Anderlecht in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gent's recent matches and 50% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gent's recent games and 53% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Ghelamco Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.21 xG and Anderlecht 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Anderlecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.75, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 37% | Draw 31% | Anderlecht 32%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 50%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Anderlecht's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.76 PPG, Anderlecht 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.