Genk 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Genk at 49%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Genk vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 4 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genk — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union St. Gilloise in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 61% versus Union St. Gilloise 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 64% | Union St. Gilloise 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.08 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.369 / defence 0.845 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.348 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.377. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Genk games / 68 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 29%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Union St. Gilloise 3.45. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Union St. Gilloise 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 49% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Genk 2.08 / Union St. Gilloise 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.369 / def 0.845 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.348 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Genk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Union St. Gilloise xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Genk 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Genk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 49% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Genk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.37x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
49%
2.04
22%
4.45
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Genk xG
Total xG
3.65
1.57
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
4%
28.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Genk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Genk and 1.57 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 77 outings, Genk have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 42W 14D 21L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 51W 12D 14L from 77 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.82 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.24 PPG from 38 outings (27W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 26W 7D 5L from 38 away games — 2.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.05 scored and 0.99 conceded. Genk's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 42W 14D 21L in their last 77 games (1.82 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 51W 12D 14L in their last 77 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Genk's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.24 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Genk or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
0
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 58%, Union St. Gilloise 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Genk and 66% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Genk's games and 63% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Genk's matches and 66% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Genk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Championship Round - 4, as Genk and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.08 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.57 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Genk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.37 / defence 0.84 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.35 / defence 0.92, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 49% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 29%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 64%, Union St. Gilloise 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.82 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.