Genk 5-2 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Anderlecht arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 59% versus Anderlecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 62% | Anderlecht 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.24 xG and Anderlecht 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.207 / defence 0.769 | Anderlecht attack 0.942 / defence 0.644. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.326. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.644 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Genk's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Genk games / 65 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 31% | Anderlecht 27%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Anderlecht 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Anderlecht (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Anderlecht 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 41% | Draw 31% | Anderlecht 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Genk 1.24 / Anderlecht 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.207 / def 0.769 | Anderlecht attack 0.942 / def 0.644 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Genk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Anderlecht xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 5 - 2 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 41% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in?
Genk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.21x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.94x) against Genk's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.18
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Genk xG
Total xG
2.20
0.96
Anderlecht xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Genk and 0.96 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 40W 12D 19L from 71 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 19L across 71 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Genk against 1.66 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 25W 4D 6L from 35 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 16W 9D 10L across 35 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.76 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 40W 12D 19L in their last 71 games (1.86 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 33W 19D 19L in their last 71 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.26 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Genk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 54%, Anderlecht 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Genk) and 49% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Anderlecht in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Genk's recent matches and 46% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Genk's matches and 49% of Anderlecht's.
Do Genk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 5-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.24 xG and Anderlecht 0.96 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Anderlecht outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.21 / defence 0.77 against Anderlecht attack 0.94 / defence 0.64, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 41% | Draw 31% | Anderlecht 27%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 62%, Anderlecht 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.86 PPG, Anderlecht 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.