Charleroi 0-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Charleroi.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Union St. Gilloise 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 66% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.30 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.912 / defence 0.991 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.406 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.367. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Charleroi games / 56 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 26% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 51%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 1.96. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Union St. Gilloise 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 26% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Charleroi 1.30 / Union St. Gilloise 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.912 / def 0.991 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.406 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Union St. Gilloise xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 26% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
26%
3.90
23%
4.33
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.20
1.91
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.90
26%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
4%
26.20
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.91 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 25W 13D 23L from 61 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 40W 10D 11L across 61 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 21W 5D 4L across 30 trips, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.05 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 25W 13D 23L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 40W 10D 11L in their last 61 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.43 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
9
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Charleroi 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 47%, Union St. Gilloise 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Charleroi and 67% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 37%; Charleroi have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Charleroi's recent matches and 57% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Charleroi's matches and 67% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.30 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.41 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 26% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 51%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 66%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.