Charleroi 0-0 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RWDM make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Charleroi (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
RWDM's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RWDM's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Charleroi's favour (0.80 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Charleroi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, RWDM in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Charleroi 1W, RWDM 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
RWDM — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus RWDM 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 52% | RWDM 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.08 xG and RWDM 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.847 / defence 1.137 | RWDM attack 0.861 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.176. RWDM bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Charleroi games / 30 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 59% | Draw 21% | RWDM 20%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | RWDM 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | RWDM 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs RWDM | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 59% | Draw 21% | RWDM 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Charleroi 2.08 / RWDM 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.847 / def 1.137 | RWDM attack 0.861 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.15
RWDM xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs RWDM kick off?
Charleroi vs RWDM kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs RWDM?
Charleroi 0 - 0 RWDM.
Where is Charleroi vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs RWDM part of?
Charleroi vs RWDM is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 59% chance of winning, RWDM a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Charleroi and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RWDM?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 1 | RWDM 0W.
What form are Charleroi and RWDM in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. RWDM (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — RWDM's attack (0.86x) against Charleroi's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 63/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.81
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.23
1.15
RWDM xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
3%
39.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.15 for RWDM, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs RWDM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 20W 14D 28L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
RWDM's form line: 26W 14D 22L from 62 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Charleroi against 1.48 for RWDM. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L).
On the road, RWDM have gone 11W 4D 15L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
RWDM
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and RWDM in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 14D 28L in their last 62 games (1.19 PPG), while RWDM have gone 26W 14D 22L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or RWDM away?
Charleroi's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.40 PPG; RWDM away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RWDM — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charleroi
2
Draws
0
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RWDM?
From 4 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, RWDM have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when RWDM 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and RWDM?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Charleroi, 70% for RWDM — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Charleroi and 77% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play RWDM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Charleroi's games and 70% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Charleroi's matches and 77% of RWDM's.
Do Charleroi and RWDM tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, RWDM in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and RWDM finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Relegation Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 2.08 xG and RWDM 1.15 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charleroi fell 2.1 short of their projected output. RWDM landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against RWDM attack 0.86 / defence 1.56, drawn from 63/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 59% | Draw 21% | RWDM 20%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 52%, RWDM 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RWDM's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.19 PPG, RWDM 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.