Charleroi 1-0 Oostende – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Oostende fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oostende make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Charleroi (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 3L this season (8 games, 1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Oostende's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Oostende have posted 2W 1D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Charleroi's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Charleroi 1W, Oostende 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Oostende goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Oostende 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 65% | Oostende 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.58 xG and Oostende 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.956 / defence 1.079 | Oostende attack 0.586 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.499. Oostende bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Charleroi games / 17 Oostende games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 52% | Draw 25% | Oostende 23%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Oostende 4.35. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 38% | Oostende 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Oostende | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 52% | Draw 25% | Oostende 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Charleroi 1.58 / Oostende 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.956 / def 1.079 | Oostende attack 0.586 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.499 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Oostende xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Oostende kick off?
Charleroi vs Oostende kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Oostende?
Charleroi 1 - 0 Oostende.
Where is Charleroi vs Oostende being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Oostende part of?
Charleroi vs Oostende is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Oostende?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 52% chance of winning, Oostende a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Oostende?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Charleroi and Oostende will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Oostende have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Oostende?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Oostende 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Oostende in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Oostende (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.96) and Oostende's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oostende's attack (0.59x) against Charleroi's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.97
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.53
0.95
Oostende xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Oostende?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Oostende expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.95 for Oostende, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Oostende?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi's recent record stands at 8W 5D 4L from 17 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oostende, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 9L across 17 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oostende heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oostende's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Oostende are on 1.24 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Oostende
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Oostende in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Oostende have gone 6W 2D 9L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Oostende away?
Charleroi's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.38 PPG; Oostende away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 0-3 on 24 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oostende — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charleroi
1
Draws
1
Oostende
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Oostende?
From 4 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Oostende have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Oostende last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Oostende 0-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Oostende?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Oostende see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 38%, Oostende 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Charleroi) and 50% (Oostende).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 38% of games; Oostende in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Oostende away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Oostende?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Charleroi's recent matches and 38% of Oostende's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Oostende usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charleroi's recent games and 50% of Oostende's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Oostende 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Oostende 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.58 xG and Oostende 0.95 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oostende landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Oostende attack 0.59 / defence 1.36, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 52% | Draw 25% | Oostende 23%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 65%, Oostende 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Oostende's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.