Charleroi 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charleroi at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Kortrijk encounter.

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Analysis

Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Charleroi have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Charleroi have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Kortrijk's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

On the road, Kortrijk have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 0.50 PPG lead over Kortrijk (0.80 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Charleroi edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Charleroi 1–0 Kortrijk — a Charleroi win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 60% versus Kortrijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 55% | Kortrijk 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.03 xG and Kortrijk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.880 / defence 0.933 | Kortrijk attack 0.848 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.291. Kortrijk's defence rating of 1.487 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. Data: built from Charleroi's last 40 games and Kortrijk's last 41.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 61% | Draw 21% | Kortrijk 18%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.65 | Draw 4.77 | Kortrijk 5.45. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Kortrijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charleroi 60% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 40% (last 10 away games).

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