Charleroi 1-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40%, yet in-form Genk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Genk hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Genk winning.
It is worth noting that Genk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Genk — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Genk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Genk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.49 xG and Genk 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.007 / defence 0.872 | Genk attack 1.223 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.152. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Charleroi games / 57 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 31% | Genk 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Genk 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genk (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 31% | Genk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Charleroi 1.49 / Genk 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.007 / def 0.872 | Genk attack 1.223 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Genk xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, Genk a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Record (5 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 2 | Genk 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Genk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.01) and Genk's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.22x) against Charleroi's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.47
31%
3.23
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.71
1.23
Genk xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.23 for Genk, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 15D 26L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk's form line: 33W 14D 16L from 63 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.61 PPG from 31 outings (14W 8D 9L).
On the road, Genk have gone 12W 7D 12L from 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.65 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Genk have gone 33W 14D 16L in their last 63 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.61 PPG; Genk away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Genk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 55%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charleroi) and 58% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Charleroi's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charleroi's recent games and 58% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Genk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 28, as Charleroi and Genk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.49 xG and Genk 1.23 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Genk attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 31% | Genk 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Genk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.