Charleroi 5-0 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Charleroi welcome Cercle Brugge to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cercle Brugge's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Cercle Brugge's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 1, Cercle Brugge 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 42% versus Cercle Brugge 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 58% | Cercle Brugge 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.94 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.716 / defence 1.027 | Cercle Brugge attack 1.034 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.344. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Charleroi games / 31 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 25% | Draw 27% | Cercle Brugge 48%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cercle Brugge 2.08. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | Cercle Brugge 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 25% | Draw 27% | Cercle Brugge 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Charleroi 0.94 / Cercle Brugge 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.716 / def 1.027 | Cercle Brugge attack 1.034 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cercle Brugge xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Charleroi 5 - 0 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 25% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charleroi and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Cercle Brugge 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.72) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
25%
4.07
27%
3.64
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.37
1.43
Cercle Brugge xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
6%
16.97
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.43 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 13W 9D 9L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 12W 7D 12L from 31 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.55 PPG, Cercle Brugge on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.48 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge in 61%.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Cercle Brugge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 13W 9D 9L in their last 31 games (1.55 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Cercle Brugge's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.33 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Cercle Brugge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cercle Brugge in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
2
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 27%, Cercle Brugge 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Charleroi) and 53% (Cercle Brugge).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Cercle Brugge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Charleroi's recent matches and 73% of Cercle Brugge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Charleroi's recent games and 53% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cercle Brugge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 5-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.94 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.43 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cercle Brugge landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.72 / defence 1.03 against Cercle Brugge attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 25% | Draw 27% | Cercle Brugge 48%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 58%, Cercle Brugge 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.55 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.