Charleroi 3-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Beerschot VA at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Charleroi — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Charleroi have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 2, Beerschot VA 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 47% versus Beerschot VA 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 50% | Beerschot VA 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.71 xG and Beerschot VA 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.795 / defence 0.818 | Beerschot VA attack 0.775 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.171. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Charleroi games / 6 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 60% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 15%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Beerschot VA 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | Beerschot VA 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 60% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Charleroi 1.71 / Beerschot VA 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.795 / def 0.818 | Beerschot VA attack 0.775 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Beerschot VA xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Charleroi vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Charleroi 3 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Charleroi vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Beerschot VA part of?
Charleroi vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 60% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charleroi and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are Charleroi and Beerschot VA in?
Charleroi (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.09
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.45
0.74
Beerschot VA xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
35.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.74 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 5D 16L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (17W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.39 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charleroi's home form reads 10W 2D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 1.72 points per game from 18 outings (10W 1D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.44 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 15W 5D 16L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 17W 6D 13L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Beerschot VA away?
Charleroi's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.78 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Charleroi won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Beerschot VA 1-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 50%, Beerschot VA 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Charleroi) and 61% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Charleroi's games and 61% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Charleroi's matches and 61% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Charleroi and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Beerschot VA 3-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.71 xG and Beerschot VA 0.74 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.80 / defence 0.82 against Beerschot VA attack 0.78 / defence 1.39, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 60% | Draw 24% | Beerschot VA 15%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 50%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.39 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.