Cercle Brugge 1-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Cercle Brugge welcome Zulte Waregem to Jan Breydelstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cercle Brugge have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jan Breydelstadion, Cercle Brugge have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Breydelstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cercle Brugge are significantly better at Jan Breydelstadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Cercle Brugge) versus 0.70 (Zulte Waregem). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cercle Brugge, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Cercle Brugge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 56% versus Zulte Waregem 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 46% | Zulte Waregem 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.23 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.848 / defence 0.700 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.786 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.422. Cercle Brugge's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Cercle Brugge games / 39 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 47% | Draw 30% | Zulte Waregem 24%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Zulte Waregem 4.17. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cercle Brugge as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 30% | Zulte Waregem 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 47% | Draw 30% | Zulte Waregem 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.23 / Zulte Waregem 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.848 / def 0.700 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.786 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Zulte Waregem xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Cercle Brugge 1 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 47% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem?
Record (2 meetings): Cercle Brugge 2W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (0.85) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.36
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.01
0.78
Zulte Waregem xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 0.78 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 13W 10D 16L from 39 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 21L across 39 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.26 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 3W 5D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cercle Brugge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 13W 10D 16L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.37 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cercle Brugge
4
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem?
From 8 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Cercle Brugge 2-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 47%, Zulte Waregem 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cercle Brugge) and 58% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Cercle Brugge keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cercle Brugge have failed to score in 26% of games; Zulte Waregem in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 58% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 58% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 6, as Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.23 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.78 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.85 / defence 0.70 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 47% | Draw 30% | Zulte Waregem 24%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 46%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.26 PPG, Zulte Waregem 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.