Beerschot VA 1-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beerschot VA face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Charleroi travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympisch Stadion, Beerschot VA have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Charleroi, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Beerschot VA.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Charleroi winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charleroi have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 59% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.787 / defence 1.405 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.095. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Beerschot VA games / 54 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 32% | Charleroi 41%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Charleroi 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 60% | Charleroi 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 32% | Charleroi 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Beerschot VA 1.15 / Charleroi 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.787 / def 1.405 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Charleroi xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Charleroi kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Charleroi kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Beerschot VA 1 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Charleroi part of?
Beerschot VA vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 27% chance of winning, Charleroi a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beerschot VA and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Charleroi?
Record (3 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Charleroi in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
27%
3.64
32%
3.16
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.58
1.43
Charleroi xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.43 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 19W 12D 23L from 54 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 23L across 54 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.28 PPG, Charleroi on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 9W 10D 8L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 10D 23L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Charleroi away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.37 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beerschot VA and Charleroi runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Charleroi won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Charleroi?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Beerschot VA 1-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 52%, Charleroi 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beerschot VA) and 44% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 33% of games; Charleroi in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 41% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 44% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Beerschot VA and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Beerschot VA and Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.79 / defence 1.41 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 32% | Charleroi 41%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 59%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.28 PPG, Charleroi 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.