Antwerp 0-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 7W 2D 1L at Bosuilstadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antwerp at 2.30 PPG versus Union St. Gilloise's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 60% versus Union St. Gilloise 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 52% | Union St. Gilloise 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.20 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.356 / defence 0.977 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.234 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.479. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Antwerp games / 25 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 26% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 51%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 1.96. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 26% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Antwerp 1.20 / Union St. Gilloise 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.356 / def 0.977 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.234 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 0 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 26% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in?
Antwerp (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.36x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
26%
3.92
23%
4.26
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.98
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
4%
23.31
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.78 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 15W 5D 5L from 25 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 18W 3D 4L across 25 games — 2.28 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 2.00 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 7W 3D 2L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 9W 2D 1L across 12 trips, a 2.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.28 scored and 0.84 conceded. Antwerp's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 15W 5D 5L in their last 25 games (2.00 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 18W 3D 4L in their last 25 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.00 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
3
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 58%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Antwerp and 67% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Antwerp's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Antwerp's matches and 67% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 0-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.20 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.36 / defence 0.98 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 26% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 51%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 52%, Union St. Gilloise 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 2.00 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.