Antwerp 4-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antwerp at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Antwerp welcome Standard Liege to Bosuilstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 8W 1D 1L at Bosuilstadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Antwerp are significantly better at Bosuilstadion than their overall form suggests.
Standard Liege — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Antwerp) versus 1.50 (Standard Liege). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Antwerp have won 0, Standard Liege 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Standard Liege winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 46% versus Standard Liege 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 52% | Standard Liege 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.57 xG and Standard Liege 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.187 / defence 0.737 | Standard Liege attack 0.814 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.350. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Antwerp games / 54 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 55% | Draw 26% | Standard Liege 19%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Standard Liege 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 40% | Standard Liege 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 55% | Draw 26% | Standard Liege 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Antwerp 1.57 / Standard Liege 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.187 / def 0.737 | Standard Liege attack 0.814 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Standard Liege xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Standard Liege kick off?
Antwerp vs Standard Liege kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Antwerp 4 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Antwerp vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Standard Liege part of?
Antwerp vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 55% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antwerp and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
Record (1 meetings): Antwerp 0W | Draws 0 | Standard Liege 1W.
What form are Antwerp and Standard Liege in?
Antwerp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.19) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.85
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.38
0.81
Standard Liege xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
25.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.81 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 30W 8D 16L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liege's form line: 18W 13D 23L from 54 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Antwerp are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liege.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 1.96 PPG from 27 outings (16W 5D 6L).
On the road, Standard Liege have gone 10W 6D 11L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 30W 8D 16L in their last 54 games (1.81 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Standard Liege away?
Antwerp's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.96 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Antwerp won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-5 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 48%, Standard Liege 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Antwerp) and 44% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Standard Liege in 33%; Standard Liege in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Antwerp's recent matches and 44% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Antwerp's recent games and 44% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Standard Liege.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Standard Liege 4-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.57 xG and Standard Liege 0.81 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.19 / defence 0.74 against Standard Liege attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 55% | Draw 26% | Standard Liege 19%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 52%, Standard Liege 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Standard Liege's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.