Antwerp 0-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antwerp have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Charleroi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Antwerp, 4 for Charleroi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 56% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.61 xG and Charleroi 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.140 / defence 0.982 | Charleroi attack 0.927 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.199. Data: 51 Antwerp games / 51 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 49% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 26%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 3.85. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 80% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 49% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Antwerp 1.61 / Charleroi 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.140 / def 0.982 | Charleroi attack 0.927 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 0 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 49% chance of winning, Charleroi a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Record (7 meetings): Antwerp 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 4W.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.93x) against Antwerp's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
49%
2.02
25%
4.02
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.71
1.09
Charleroi xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.09 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 21W 19D 22L from 62 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 22L across 62 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Antwerp against 1.42 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 13W 7D 11L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 9W 7D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 21W 19D 22L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 24W 16D 22L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.48 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 68%, Charleroi 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Antwerp and 52% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Antwerp's games and 58% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Antwerp's matches and 52% of Charleroi's.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 0-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.61 xG and Charleroi 1.09 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 49% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 26%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.32 PPG, Charleroi 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.