Antwerp 4-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 80% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Antwerp welcome Beerschot VA to Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Antwerp have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Antwerp's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Beerschot VA — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Beerschot VA's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Antwerp carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Antwerp have won 2, Beerschot VA 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2022, ended Antwerp 2–1 Beerschot VA — a Antwerp win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 50% versus Beerschot VA 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 55% | Beerschot VA 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.90 xG and Beerschot VA 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.275 / defence 0.916 | Beerschot VA attack 0.703 / defence 1.499. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.180. Antwerp carry an above-average attack rating of 1.275 — their 2.90 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Beerschot VA's defence rating of 1.499 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antwerp's projected output up. Beerschot VA's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Antwerp's last 38 games and Beerschot VA's last 8.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 80% | Draw 14% | Beerschot VA 6%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.25 | Draw 7.07 | Beerschot VA 16.69. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (80%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Beerschot VA's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 60% (last 10 home games) | Beerschot VA 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 80% | Draw 14% | Beerschot VA 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Antwerp 2.90 / Beerschot VA 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.275 / def 0.916 | Beerschot VA attack 0.703 / def 1.499 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.90
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Beerschot VA xG
51%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Beerschot VA FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Antwerp vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Antwerp 4 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Antwerp vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Beerschot VA part of?
Antwerp vs Beerschot VA is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 80% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Antwerp and Beerschot VA will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.90. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 38 games and Beerschot VA's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
80%
1.25
14%
7.07
6%
16.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.90
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.66
0.76
Beerschot VA xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.07
14%
Draw
16.69
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
6%
18.12
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Beerschot VA Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.90 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.76 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 6D 16L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.50 PPG from 38 outings (17W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.42 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antwerp's home form reads 9W 3D 7L across their last 19 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 1.63 points per game from their last 19 away games (10W 1D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.37 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
Antwerp (Home) vs Beerschot VA (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Antwerp vs Beerschot VA Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 16W 6D 16L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 17W 6D 15L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.58 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Sep 2024, when Antwerp won Antwerp 4-0 Beerschot VA.
Antwerp's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Antwerp
1
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Beerschot VA H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Beerschot VA?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Beerschot VA last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2025: Beerschot VA 1-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Beerschot VA?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 58%, Beerschot VA 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Antwerp and 63% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Beerschot VA Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Beerschot VA matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Antwerp's games and 58% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antwerp and Beerschot VA matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Antwerp's matches and 63% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Antwerp and Beerschot VA matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Antwerp's recent matches and 68% of Beerschot VA's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Beerschot VA 4-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.90 xG and Beerschot VA 0.76 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.27 / defence 0.92 against Beerschot VA attack 0.70 / defence 1.50, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 80% | Draw 14% | Beerschot VA 6%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 55%, Beerschot VA 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.42 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.