Anderlecht 2-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Anderlecht face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Anderlecht stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Anderlecht have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Anderlecht 2.20 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 58% and Union St. Gilloise 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 54% | Union St. Gilloise 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Anderlecht surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Union St. Gilloise have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.21 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.048 / defence 0.880 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.342 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. Union St. Gilloise bring a tight defence (rating 0.737, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Anderlecht's projected output down. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack rating of 1.342, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Data: built from Anderlecht's last 63 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 64.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 33% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 41%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 3.05 | Draw 3.81 | Union St. Gilloise 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Anderlecht 50% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 33% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Anderlecht 1.21 / Union St. Gilloise 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.048 / def 0.880 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.342 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Union St. Gilloise xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 2 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 3) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 33% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.05x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Anderlecht's last 63 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.81
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.60
1.39
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.39 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 32W 16D 17L from 65 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 42W 14D 9L across 65 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 17W 7D 8L from their last 32 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 20W 9D 3L across their last 32 away games, a 2.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.03 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 69%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Anderlecht (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 32W 16D 17L in their last 65 games (1.72 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 42W 14D 9L in their last 65 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.81 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Anderlecht
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Anderlecht have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Anderlecht at 59%, Union St. Gilloise at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Anderlecht) and 56% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Anderlecht's games and 72% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Anderlecht's matches and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 84% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Anderlecht defy the odds to beat Union St. Gilloise 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Union St. Gilloise 2-1 at Lotto Park, Championship Round - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.21 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.39 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.34 / defence 0.74, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 33% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 41%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Anderlecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 54%, Union St. Gilloise 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.72. Form was overturned, with Anderlecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.