Zulte Waregem 2-5 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 53%, yet in-form Zulte Waregem provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elindus Arena plays host to Zulte Waregem versus RSC Anderlecht II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 2W 2D 6L at Elindus Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
RSC Anderlecht II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Zulte Waregem. A 0.70 PPG lead over RSC Anderlecht II (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
RSC Anderlecht II — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 66% and RSC Anderlecht II 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 64% | RSC Anderlecht II 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.81 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.717 / defence 0.993 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.027 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.446. Zulte Waregem's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Zulte Waregem games / 34 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 21% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 53%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | RSC Anderlecht II 1.89. RSC Anderlecht II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RSC Anderlecht II at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 21% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Zulte Waregem 0.81 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.717 / def 0.993 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.027 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.47
RSC Anderlecht II xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 5 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 21% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.72x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (1.03x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 12/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
21%
4.88
27%
3.77
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.28
1.47
RSC Anderlecht II xG
4.88
21%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
21.27
24%
4.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.47 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 12W 11D 21L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 17L across 44 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.20 for RSC Anderlecht II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 4W 5D 12L from 21 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RSC Anderlecht II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.48 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; RSC Anderlecht II in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 13W 14D 17L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.81 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RSC Anderlecht II won 2-5 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Zulte Waregem, 67% for RSC Anderlecht II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Zulte Waregem and 62% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play RSC Anderlecht II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zulte Waregem's games and 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 62% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do Zulte Waregem and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RSC Anderlecht II run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RSC Anderlecht II beat Zulte Waregem 2-5 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.81 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.47 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RSC Anderlecht II outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 21% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 53%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 64%, RSC Anderlecht II 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.07 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RSC Anderlecht II win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.