Zulte Waregem 3-2 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zulte Waregem (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zulte Waregem face AS Eupen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees AS Eupen travel to Elindus Arena to take on Zulte Waregem. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Zulte Waregem have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Zulte Waregem hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for AS Eupen, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zulte Waregem and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AS Eupen trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 62% versus AS Eupen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 60% | AS Eupen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 2.55 xG and AS Eupen 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.561 / defence 0.930 | AS Eupen attack 1.110 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.357. Zulte Waregem carry an above-average attack strength of 1.561 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Zulte Waregem games / 16 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 62% | Draw 18% | AS Eupen 20%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | AS Eupen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 70% | AS Eupen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 62% | Draw 18% | AS Eupen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 70% | xG Zulte Waregem 2.55 / AS Eupen 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.561 / def 0.930 | AS Eupen attack 1.110 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.40
AS Eupen xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Zulte Waregem 3 - 2 AS Eupen.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen part of?
Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 62% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
Record (5 meetings): Zulte Waregem 3W | Draws 2 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (1.56x league average) is weighed against AS Eupen's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.55. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
62%
1.60
18%
5.56
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.95
1.40
AS Eupen xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
8%
12.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
2%
65.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.40 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 50 games, going 28W 10D 12L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Eupen sit at 0.78 PPG from 50 outings (11W 6D 33L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Eupen have taken 0.72 points per game from 25 outings (5W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.00 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 28W 10D 12L in their last 50 games (1.88 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 11W 6D 33L in their last 50 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or AS Eupen away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.56 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Zulte Waregem won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 4, AS Eupen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 60%, AS Eupen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Zulte Waregem) and 60% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 28% of games; AS Eupen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 44% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 60% of AS Eupen's.
Do Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out AS Eupen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat AS Eupen 3-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 2.55 xG and AS Eupen 1.40 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.56 / defence 0.93 against AS Eupen attack 1.11 / defence 1.18, drawn from 48/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 62% | Draw 18% | AS Eupen 20%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, AS Eupen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
AS Eupen's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.