SK Beveren 3-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 36%, yet in-form Zulte Waregem provide a compelling counter-argument — this SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethielstadion plays host to SK Beveren versus Zulte Waregem in Challenger Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
SK Beveren's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Zulte Waregem's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Zulte Waregem are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Zulte Waregem edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended SK Beveren 0–4 Zulte Waregem — a Zulte Waregem win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 44% versus Zulte Waregem 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 52% | Zulte Waregem 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.02 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.017 / defence 0.698 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.016 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.342. Zulte Waregem bring a tight defence (rating 0.735, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SK Beveren's projected output down. SK Beveren have a tight defence (rating 0.698), which is pulling Zulte Waregem's projected output down. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 52 games and Zulte Waregem's last 52.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 36% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 32%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.80 | Draw 3.10 | Zulte Waregem 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 40% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 36% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG SK Beveren 1.02 / Zulte Waregem 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.017 / def 0.698 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.016 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zulte Waregem xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
SK Beveren 3 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem part of?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 36% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.02) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.02x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 52 games and Zulte Waregem's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.10
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
1.97
0.95
Zulte Waregem xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.95 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 22W 14D 16L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 29W 12D 11L from 52 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.90 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.72 PPG from their last 25 home games (12W 7D 6L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 6D 4L from their last 25 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.85 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Zulte Waregem (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 22W 14D 16L in their last 52 games (1.54 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 29W 12D 11L in their last 52 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.72 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.04 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 52%, Zulte Waregem 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SK Beveren) and 60% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 36%; SK Beveren have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SK Beveren's games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SK Beveren's matches and 60% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 64% of Zulte Waregem's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.02 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.95 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.02 / defence 0.70 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 36% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 32%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 52%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.54 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.