SK Beveren 1-2 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Beveren face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Patro Eisden make the trip to Freethielstadion to face SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals). The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 19:15 UK time.
Form
SK Beveren (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SK Beveren have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Patro Eisden's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Patro Eisden have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for SK Beveren, 1.80 for Patro Eisden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for SK Beveren, 3 for Patro Eisden and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Apr 2025, ended SK Beveren 2–3 Patro Eisden — a Patro Eisden win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Patro Eisden — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 45% versus Patro Eisden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 55% | Patro Eisden 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.29 xG and Patro Eisden 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.172 / defence 0.919 | Patro Eisden attack 1.026 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.287. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 59 games and Patro Eisden's last 59.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 38% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 35%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.61 | Draw 3.71 | Patro Eisden 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 40% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 38% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SK Beveren 1.29 / Patro Eisden 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.172 / def 0.919 | Patro Eisden attack 1.026 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Patro Eisden xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden kick off?
SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
SK Beveren 1 - 2 Patro Eisden.
Where is SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden part of?
SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 38% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SK Beveren and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (1.03x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 59 games and Patro Eisden's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.71
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.50
1.21
Patro Eisden xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.21 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 27W 15D 18L from 60 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 13L across 60 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.72 for Patro Eisden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 14W 8D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 12W 12D 5L across their last 29 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.57 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Patro Eisden in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Current Season
Patro Eisden
Current Season
SK Beveren (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Current Season
Patro Eisden
Current Season
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 28W 19D 13L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Patro Eisden away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.72 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.66 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SK Beveren have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 3, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 52%, Patro Eisden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SK Beveren) and 38% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 52%; SK Beveren have failed to score in 28% of games; Patro Eisden in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 38% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Beveren and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of SK Beveren's recent games and 38% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Patro Eisden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 59% of Patro Eisden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat SK Beveren 1-2 at Freethielstadion, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.29 xG and Patro Eisden 1.21 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against Patro Eisden attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 38% | Draw 27% | Patro Eisden 35%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 55%, Patro Eisden 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.60 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.