SK Beveren 2-0 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as SK Beveren welcome Olympic Charleroi to Freethiel Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren at Freethiel Stadion this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympic Charleroi — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 2.30 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Olympic Charleroi in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SK Beveren, 0 for Olympic Charleroi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 5–0 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Olympic Charleroi trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 58% versus Olympic Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 58% | Olympic Charleroi 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.84 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.174 / defence 0.695 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.013 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.358. SK Beveren's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 SK Beveren games / 24 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 58% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Olympic Charleroi 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Olympic Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 58% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG SK Beveren 1.84 / Olympic Charleroi 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.174 / def 0.695 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.013 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Olympic Charleroi xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
SK Beveren 2 - 0 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 58% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 0 | Olympic Charleroi 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.17) and Olympic Charleroi's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympic Charleroi's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.43
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.80
0.96
Olympic Charleroi xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
32.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.96 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.75 PPG on a 21W 3D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympic Charleroi's form line: 3W 7D 14L from 24 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 2.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Olympic Charleroi.
Venue Form
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.83 PPG from 12 outings (11W 1D 0L).
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 4L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.67 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.88 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 21W 3D 0L in their last 24 games (2.75 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 7D 14L in their last 24 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.83 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.17 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Olympic Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Olympic Charleroi in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 50%, Olympic Charleroi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 58% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Olympic Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SK Beveren's games and 67% of Olympic Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Beveren's recent games and 58% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Olympic Charleroi 2-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.84 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.96 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.17 / defence 0.69 against Olympic Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 58% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 19%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 58%, Olympic Charleroi 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.