SK Beveren 2-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Beveren face Deinze.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Deinze meet at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
SK Beveren's record over their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Deinze have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Deinze away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for Deinze and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended SK Beveren 0–0 Deinze — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Deinze half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 52% versus Deinze 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 65% | Deinze 59%). Note also that Deinze surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while SK Beveren recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.27 xG and Deinze 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.147 / defence 0.994 | Deinze attack 0.921 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.477. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 44 games and Deinze's last 44.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 35% | Draw 26% | Deinze 39%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.85 | Draw 3.82 | Deinze 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 60% (last 10 home games) | Deinze 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 35% | Draw 26% | Deinze 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SK Beveren 1.27 / Deinze 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.147 / def 0.994 | Deinze attack 0.921 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Deinze (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Deinze xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Deinze FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Deinze kick off?
SK Beveren vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Deinze?
SK Beveren 2 - 2 Deinze.
Where is SK Beveren vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Deinze part of?
SK Beveren vs Deinze is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 35% chance of winning, Deinze a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SK Beveren and Deinze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 1.15x the league average against Deinze's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.92x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 44 games and Deinze's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.82
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.63
1.35
Deinze xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Deinze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.35 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 54 games, going 30W 13D 11L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.69 PPG from 54 outings (28W 7D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.69 for Deinze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SK Beveren's home form reads 18W 4D 4L across their last 26 home games, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 26 away games (12W 1D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.54 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Deinze
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Deinze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Deinze Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Deinze in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 30W 13D 11L in their last 54 games (1.91 PPG), while Deinze have gone 28W 7D 19L in their last 54 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Deinze away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.23 PPG; Deinze away: 1.42 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Deinze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between SK Beveren and Deinze, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 3 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won SK Beveren 4-1 Deinze on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Deinze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Deinze?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 3, Deinze have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Deinze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2024: Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Deinze?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 62%, Deinze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SK Beveren and 50% for Deinze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Deinze in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Deinze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Deinze matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SK Beveren's games and 50% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SK Beveren and Deinze matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SK Beveren's matches and 50% of Deinze's.
Do SK Beveren and Deinze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 65% of Deinze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren and Deinze share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 23, as SK Beveren and Deinze drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.27 xG and Deinze 1.35 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Deinze attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 35% | Draw 26% | Deinze 39%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 65%, Deinze 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Deinze's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.91 PPG, Deinze 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.