RWDM 1-3 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Edmond Machtens-Stadion to face RWDM in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
RWDM (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. RWDM have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.25 for RWDM, 1.50 for SK Beveren — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
RWDM goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
SK Beveren goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RWDM 50% versus SK Beveren 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 50% | SK Beveren 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.14 xG and SK Beveren 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.976 / defence 0.994 | SK Beveren attack 1.219 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.452. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 RWDM games / 4 SK Beveren games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RWDM 21% | Draw 30% | SK Beveren 49%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | SK Beveren 2.04. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: RWDM 50% | SK Beveren 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Edmond Machtens-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 21% | Draw 30% | SK Beveren 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG RWDM 1.14 / SK Beveren 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.976 / def 0.994 | SK Beveren attack 1.219 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.76
SK Beveren xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs SK Beveren kick off?
RWDM vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs SK Beveren?
RWDM 1 - 3 SK Beveren.
Where is RWDM vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What competition is RWDM vs SK Beveren part of?
RWDM vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 21% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RWDM and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RWDM and SK Beveren in?
RWDM (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-D-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RWDM's attack rating (0.98) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.22x) against RWDM's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
21%
4.68
30%
3.32
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.90
1.76
SK Beveren xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
27.20
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are RWDM and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for RWDM and 1.76 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, RWDM have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RWDM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for RWDM against 1.50 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RWDM are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren in 25%.
Defensively: RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have RWDM or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RWDM have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RWDM
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, RWDM have won 3, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when SK Beveren 3-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RWDM see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 50%, SK Beveren 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RWDM) and 50% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; RWDM have failed to score in 50% of games; SK Beveren in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RWDM's recent matches and 25% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RWDM vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RWDM's recent games and 50% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RWDM and SK Beveren tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RWDM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat RWDM 1-3 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.14 xG and SK Beveren 1.76 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SK Beveren outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against SK Beveren attack 1.22 / defence 1.11, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 21% | Draw 30% | SK Beveren 49%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 50%, SK Beveren 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RWDM 1.25 PPG, SK Beveren 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.