RAAL La Louvière 2-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RAAL La Louvière at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
RAAL La Louvière welcome KRC Genk II to Stade Communal du Tivoli in Challenger Pro League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
RAAL La Louvière — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, RAAL La Louvière have posted 4W 1D 1L from their last 6 home games — 2.17 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at their last 10 matches, KRC Genk II stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
KRC Genk II's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, RAAL La Louvière have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
RAAL La Louvière in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RAAL La Louvière 69% and KRC Genk II 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RAAL La Louvière 54% | KRC Genk II 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 2.60 xG and KRC Genk II 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.313 / defence 0.884 | KRC Genk II attack 0.853 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.429. RAAL La Louvière carry an above-average attack rating of 1.313 — their 2.60 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RAAL La Louvière's projected output up. Data: built from RAAL La Louvière's last 13 games and KRC Genk II's last 43.
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 70% | Draw 16% | KRC Genk II 14%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 1.43 | Draw 6.09 | KRC Genk II 7.39. The model has a clear lean to RAAL La Louvière (70%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.60 / 1.08) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RAAL La Louvière at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RAAL La Louvière's last 6 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RAAL La Louvière 50% (last 6 home games) | KRC Genk II 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Communal du Tivoli • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 70% | Draw 16% | KRC Genk II 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG RAAL La Louvière 2.60 / KRC Genk II 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.313 / def 0.884 | KRC Genk II attack 0.853 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: RAAL La Louvière (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.08
KRC Genk II xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II FAQs
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II?
RAAL La Louvière 2 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Communal du Tivoli.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 70% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 14% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making RAAL La Louvière the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (1.31) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RAAL La Louvière's last 13 games and KRC Genk II's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 1-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RAAL La Louvière Win
70%
1.43
16%
6.09
14%
7.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
3.68
1.08
KRC Genk II xG
1.43
70%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
7.39
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
7%
13.45
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
1%
99.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.08 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RAAL La Louvière come into this having played 13 games, going 9W 2D 2L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, KRC Genk II sit at 0.77 PPG from 13 outings (3W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
RAAL La Louvière carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.46 PPG clear of KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
RAAL La Louvière's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, KRC Genk II have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 6 away games (1W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.23 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RAAL La Louvière have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
RAAL La Louvière (Home) vs KRC Genk II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II Form FAQs
What form are RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 9W 2D 2L in their last 13 games (2.23 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 3W 1D 9L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or KRC Genk II away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 2.17 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
RAAL La Louvière
0
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, RAAL La Louvière have won 2, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: KRC Genk II 0-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 50%, KRC Genk II 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (RAAL La Louvière) and 67% (KRC Genk II).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; KRC Genk II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RAAL La Louvière vs KRC Genk II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 50% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 67% of KRC Genk II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and KRC Genk II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 83% of KRC Genk II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RAAL La Louvière edge out KRC Genk II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière beat KRC Genk II 2-1 at Stade Communal du Tivoli, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 2.60 xG and KRC Genk II 1.08 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 1.31 / defence 0.88 against KRC Genk II attack 0.85 / defence 1.32, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 70% | Draw 16% | KRC Genk II 14%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 54%, KRC Genk II 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.