Patro Eisden 1-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Patro Eisden welcome Dender to Patrostadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Dender have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dender have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dender away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Patro Eisden at 2.00 PPG versus Dender's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Dender in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Patro Eisden trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Dender trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Patro Eisden 100% and Dender 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Patro Eisden 100% | Dender 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.36 xG and Dender 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.157 / defence 1.103 | Dender attack 0.899 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.382. Data: 5 Patro Eisden games / 27 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Dender 37%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Dender 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 100% | Dender 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Dender 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Patro Eisden 1.36 / Dender 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.157 / def 1.103 | Dender attack 0.899 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dender xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Dender kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Patro Eisden 1 - 1 Dender.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Dender part of?
Patro Eisden vs Dender is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 37% chance of winning, Dender a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Patro Eisden and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Dender?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Patro Eisden and Dender in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Dender (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 1.16x the league average against Dender's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.90
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.73
1.37
Dender xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.37 for Dender, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 1L across 5 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Patro Eisden on 2.00 PPG, Dender on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dender in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Dender in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Dender have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Patro Eisden and Dender runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Patro Eisden
2
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Dender?
From 2 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 0, Dender have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Dender 0-0 Patro Eisden.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Patro Eisden at 100%, Dender at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Patro Eisden and 60% for Dender. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Patro Eisden's games and 80% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Patro Eisden's matches and 60% of Dender's.
Do Patro Eisden and Dender tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dender in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 6, as Patro Eisden and Dender drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.36 xG and Dender 1.37 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Dender attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 5/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Dender 37%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 100%, Dender 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 90%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 2.00 PPG, Dender 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Patro Eisden managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.