Olympic Charleroi 0-3 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Neuville plays host to Olympic Charleroi versus Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympic Charleroi's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympic Charleroi at Stade de la Neuville this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Neuville this season.
Francs Borains (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Olympic Charleroi, 1.00 for Francs Borains — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympic Charleroi lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Olympic Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Olympic Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 48% versus Francs Borains 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 57% | Francs Borains 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.86 xG and Francs Borains 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.528 / defence 1.340 | Francs Borains attack 0.744 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.318. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.528 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Olympic Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Olympic Charleroi games / 49 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 25% | Draw 28% | Francs Borains 47%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Francs Borains 2.13. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Francs Borains at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 30% | Francs Borains 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 25% | Draw 28% | Francs Borains 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Olympic Charleroi 0.86 / Francs Borains 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.528 / def 1.340 | Francs Borains attack 0.744 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Francs Borains xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains?
Olympic Charleroi 0 - 3 Francs Borains.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 25% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains?
Record (1 meetings): Olympic Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympic Charleroi's attacking strength (0.53x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.74x) against Olympic Charleroi's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 21/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
25%
4.07
28%
3.53
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.18
1.31
Francs Borains xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 1.31 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympic Charleroi come into this having played 21 games, going 2W 6D 13L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.57 PPG for Olympic Charleroi against 0.95 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Olympic Charleroi's home form reads 0W 2D 9L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 0.45 points per game from 11 outings (1W 2D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Francs Borains's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 0.90 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 6D 13L in their last 21 games (0.57 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or Francs Borains away?
Francs Borains's away record (0.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.18 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Olympic Charleroi
0
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 1, Francs Borains have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Olympic Charleroi 0-3 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympic Charleroi 36%, Francs Borains 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Olympic Charleroi) and 46% (Francs Borains).
On the defensive side: Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 64% of games; Francs Borains in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 54% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Olympic Charleroi's recent games and 46% of Francs Borains's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympic Charleroi and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Francs Borains run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Olympic Charleroi 0-3 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.86 xG and Francs Borains 1.31 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Francs Borains outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.53 / defence 1.34 against Francs Borains attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 21/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 25% | Draw 28% | Francs Borains 47%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 57%, Francs Borains 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Francs Borains's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympic Charleroi 0.57 PPG, Francs Borains 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.