Lommel United 1-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lommel United face K. Lierse S.K..
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. meet at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lommel United's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Lommel United against 1.90 for K. Lierse S.K.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Lommel United 3–0 K. Lierse S.K. — a Lommel United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lommel United — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lommel United 63% and K. Lierse S.K. 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lommel United 63% | K. Lierse S.K. 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.57 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.962 / defence 0.940 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.810 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.378. Data: built from Lommel United's last 35 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 35.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 49% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 25%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.04 | Draw 3.87 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.99. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lommel United 50% (last 10 home games) | K. Lierse S.K. 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 49% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Lommel United 1.57 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.962 / def 0.940 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.810 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.05
K. Lierse S.K. xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Lommel United 1 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 49% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.96x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.81x) against Lommel United's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 35 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.87
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.05 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lommel United come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 9D 11L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (13W 5D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Lommel United against 1.26 for K. Lierse S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lommel United's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across their last 17 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 17 away games (5W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.46 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; K. Lierse S.K. in 63%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
Lommel United (Home) vs K. Lierse S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Early Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
❓ Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 15W 9D 11L in their last 35 games (1.54 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 13W 5D 17L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Lommel United's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.65 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 19 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won Lommel United 3-0 K. Lierse S.K. on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lommel United
2
Draws
4
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 4, K. Lierse S.K. have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 December 2025: Lommel United 4-3 K. Lierse S.K..
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 47%, K. Lierse S.K. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lommel United) and 71% (K. Lierse S.K.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 29% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs K. Lierse S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lommel United's recent matches and 53% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Lommel United's matches and 71% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lommel United's recent matches and 94% of K. Lierse S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Lommel United and K. Lierse S.K. drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.57 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 49% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 25%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 63%, K. Lierse S.K. 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.54 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.