KRC Genk II 2-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SK Beveren at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host SK Beveren at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Freethielstadion, KRC Genk II have gone 3W 1D 5L this season (9 games, 1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, KRC Genk II have won 0, SK Beveren 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 58% and SK Beveren 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (KRC Genk II 63% | SK Beveren 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.11 xG and SK Beveren 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.802 / defence 1.067 | SK Beveren attack 1.160 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.472. Data: 19 KRC Genk II games / 48 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 23% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 54%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | SK Beveren 1.85. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 44% | SK Beveren 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 23% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG KRC Genk II 1.11 / SK Beveren 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.802 / def 1.067 | SK Beveren attack 1.160 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.82
SK Beveren xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kick off?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
KRC Genk II 2 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren part of?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 23% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both KRC Genk II and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 0.80x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
23%
4.35
23%
4.36
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.93
1.82
SK Beveren xG
4.35
23%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
4%
26.90
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.82 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 4W 3D 12L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 11W 6D 2L from 19 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.37 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren in 63%.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 11W 6D 2L in their last 19 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.11 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.78 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
From 8 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 44%, SK Beveren 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for KRC Genk II and 78% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 33%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of KRC Genk II's games and 67% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of KRC Genk II's matches and 78% of SK Beveren's.
Do KRC Genk II and SK Beveren tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 21, as KRC Genk II and SK Beveren drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.11 xG and SK Beveren 1.82 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against SK Beveren attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 19/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 23% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 54%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 63%, SK Beveren 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.