KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KRC Genk II face SK Beveren.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host SK Beveren at Cegeka Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
SK Beveren have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against KRC Genk II's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with SK Beveren winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SK Beveren have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 62% versus SK Beveren 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 71% | SK Beveren 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.33 xG and SK Beveren 2.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.211 / defence 1.478 | SK Beveren attack 1.343 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.348. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — the away xG of 2.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 KRC Genk II games / 45 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 17% | Draw 17% | SK Beveren 66%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 5.88 | Draw 5.88 | SK Beveren 1.52. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 2.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 70% | SK Beveren 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 17% | Draw 17% | SK Beveren 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 69% | xG KRC Genk II 1.33 / SK Beveren 2.68 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.211 / def 1.478 | SK Beveren attack 1.343 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
2.68
SK Beveren xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kick off?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 17 December 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
KRC Genk II 1 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren part of?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 17% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 66% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both KRC Genk II and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
Record (7 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 2 | SK Beveren 4W.
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 1.21x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 2.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
17%
5.90
17%
5.81
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.7%
Away win
0 – 2
6.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
4.01
2.68
SK Beveren xG
5.90
17%
Home win
5.81
17%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
7%
14.53
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
1%
85.75
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 2.68 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 7W 9D 29L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 26W 11D 8L from 45 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 0.76 PPG from 21 outings (4W 4D 13L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 12W 4D 5L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.62 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 7W 9D 29L in their last 45 games (0.67 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 26W 11D 8L in their last 45 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.76 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.90 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
From 8 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 67%, SK Beveren 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for KRC Genk II and 52% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 43%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 43% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of KRC Genk II's matches and 52% of SK Beveren's.
Do KRC Genk II and SK Beveren tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out KRC Genk II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat KRC Genk II 1-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.33 xG and SK Beveren 2.68 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.21 / defence 1.48 against SK Beveren attack 1.34 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 17% | Draw 17% | SK Beveren 66%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 71%, SK Beveren 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.