KRC Genk II 0-1 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RAAL La Louvière at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
RAAL La Louvière travel to De Leunen to take on KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KRC Genk II at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, RAAL La Louvière stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RAAL La Louvière away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. RAAL La Louvière's 1.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of KRC Genk II's games and 70% of RAAL La Louvière's (from KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and RAAL La Louvière's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for KRC Genk II, 1 for RAAL La Louvière and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended KRC Genk II 1–2 RAAL La Louvière — a RAAL La Louvière win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
RAAL La Louvière in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 58% versus RAAL La Louvière 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 77% | RAAL La Louvière 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: KRC Genk II surrender their half-time lead 83% of the time, while RAAL La Louvière have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.18 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.957 / defence 1.294 | RAAL La Louvière attack 1.085 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.338. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RAAL La Louvière's projected output up. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 55 games and RAAL La Louvière's last 26.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 24% | Draw 22% | RAAL La Louvière 54%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 4.20 | Draw 4.44 | RAAL La Louvière 1.86. RAAL La Louvière hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RAAL La Louvière as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RAAL La Louvière offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and RAAL La Louvière's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 home games) | RAAL La Louvière 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 24% | Draw 22% | RAAL La Louvière 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.18 / RAAL La Louvière 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.957 / def 1.294 | RAAL La Louvière attack 1.085 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: RAAL La Louvière (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.88
RAAL La Louvière xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière?
KRC Genk II 0 - 1 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 24% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RAAL La Louvière the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.96) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RAAL La Louvière's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 55 games and RAAL La Louvière's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RAAL La Louvière Win
24%
4.20
22%
4.44
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.06
1.88
RAAL La Louvière xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
4%
27.50
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.88 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.54 PPG on a 3W 5D 18L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
RAAL La Louvière's form line: 15W 8D 3L from 26 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, RAAL La Louvière are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 0.75 PPG from their last 12 home games (2W 3D 7L).
On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 6W 4D 2L from their last 12 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.81 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RAAL La Louvière in 62%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
KRC Genk II (Home) vs RAAL La Louvière (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 3W 5D 18L in their last 26 games (0.54 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 15W 8D 3L in their last 26 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
RAAL La Louvière's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.75 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 1.83 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
2
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 0, RAAL La Louvière have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: KRC Genk II 0-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — KRC Genk II at 67%, RAAL La Louvière at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for KRC Genk II and 58% for RAAL La Louvière. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs RAAL La Louvière Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of KRC Genk II's games and 75% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of KRC Genk II's matches and 58% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do KRC Genk II and RAAL La Louvière matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 75% of RAAL La Louvière's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RAAL La Louvière edge out KRC Genk II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière beat KRC Genk II 0-1 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.18 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.88 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. RAAL La Louvière landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.96 / defence 1.29 against RAAL La Louvière attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 24% | Draw 22% | RAAL La Louvière 54%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 77%, RAAL La Louvière 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.