K. Lierse S.K. 0-0 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 38%, yet in-form RWDM provide a compelling counter-argument — this K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. host RWDM at AsterX Group-f Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, RWDM have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, RWDM have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RWDM — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, RWDM have the better record in our head-to-head data — 7 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for K. Lierse S.K..
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended K. Lierse S.K. 0–3 RWDM — a RWDM win.
The H2H data backs the away side. RWDM have won 7 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
RWDM trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 63% and RWDM 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 67% | RWDM 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.55 xG and RWDM 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.084 / defence 1.055 | RWDM attack 1.070 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.370. Data: built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 49 games and RWDM's last 19.
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 38% | Draw 24% | RWDM 38%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.63 | Draw 4.19 | RWDM 2.63. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — K. Lierse S.K. 38% and RWDM 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 home games and RWDM's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: K. Lierse S.K. 60% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: AsterX Group-f Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 38% | Draw 24% | RWDM 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.55 / RWDM 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.084 / def 1.055 | RWDM attack 1.070 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.55
RWDM xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM FAQs
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 0 RWDM.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 38% chance of winning, RWDM a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.08x the league average against RWDM's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 49 games and RWDM's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.19
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.09
1.55
RWDM xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.34
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.55 for RWDM, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 10D 22L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, RWDM sit at 1.22 PPG from 49 outings (16W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.24 PPG, RWDM on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 10W 4D 10L across their last 24 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, RWDM have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 24 away games (7W 4D 13L).
The Goals Picture
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.35 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
RWDM
Blended
K. Lierse S.K. (Home) vs RWDM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM Form FAQs
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while RWDM have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or RWDM away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.42 PPG; RWDM away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Oct 2022, when RWDM won RWDM 3-0 K. Lierse S.K..
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting RWDM specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
K. Lierse S.K.
2
Draws
7
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, RWDM have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: RWDM 1-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 71%, RWDM 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for K. Lierse S.K. and 75% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RWDM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 58% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 75% of RWDM's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 62% of RWDM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at K. Lierse S.K.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. and RWDM finished level at 0-0 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.55 xG and RWDM 1.55 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RWDM landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against RWDM attack 1.07 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 38% | Draw 24% | RWDM 38%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 67%, RWDM 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
RWDM's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 PPG, RWDM 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.